Coal-to-liquid – we don’t want to go there if we don’t absolutely have to – much dirtier than processing oil sands or even shale – massive CO2 emissions, very high production cost.

Game-changing alternatives are coming – in 30 months we will have the first mass-market EV that can run on your choice of electricity – from coal or nuclear or gas or wind or solar.

It’s getting from here to there without supply disruptions in our tight liquid fuels market (odd-even days, anyone?) that concerns me.

You did clearly state that it is harder to get the oil that is left, but it was not clear that you were talking specifically about the other sources that I mentioned. Most people (maybe not you) don’t understand these as alternatives to the sources we currently use, so forgive me if I assumed that you did not too.

Most Americans have seen an interview with someone like the author of Twilight in the Desert or headlines like this and are convinced that there will be no oil left on the planet in just a few years.

I agree it is harder and more expensive to extract those, but some of those alternatives are profitable or could be within a few more years at today’s prices and/or a small amount of innovation. Alberta is raking in the money right now. Those sources are not profitable at $20 or maybe even $60 per barrel, so they were never considered until recently. If prices stay high, those sources will help on the supply side.

You also mention the instability in the relationships with some of the countries who have the stuff we currently use. These alternatives are in much more stable locations which is also a significant plus. I don’t see us having a major conflict with the Canadians anytime soon.

Shana: The guy investing in wind farms is T Boone Pickens. This is a perfect example of someone seeing a potential for profit in an alternative. He had a great interview on Larry King about this. I could not find that transcript, but i found another interview with Pickens on the topic.

@Joe: “It’s nice to see so many people get the fact that both drilling in the short term and investing in alternative energy in the long term are complimentary solutions to the problem.”

I agree. Is it only the politicians who have lost their minds? They keep seeming to draw ridiculously black and white lines in the sand to differentiate themselves, but not really fix anything.

As many of the comments show, to drill or not to drill is not an either/or proposition. Too many times people argue that drilling won’t solve the problem because it’s a short term solution to a long term problem, and the only long term solution is renewable energy. The problem is that renewable energy is not viable yet.

It’s nice to see so many people get the fact that both drilling in the short term and investing in alternative energy in the long term are complimentary solutions to the problem.

Clearly if you didn’t ignore peoples comments and read correctly you would understand. I’ve clearly said that domestic drilling in the states is not the solution due to the fact the oil in the states would be far to expensive to extract i.e. shale oil.

How are “WE” going to decide how to invest the dollars that someone else earned? Are “we” more efficient at investing than they are? They made the money in the first place.

There is no alternative, even with billions of dollars, that can replace non-renewable energy in seven to ten years. I too think we should be innovating, but let’s not run towards edge of a cliff hoping we’ll magically evolve wings.

@djm: “As an oil driller (and having to repeat myself again!!) most of the oil producing countries are well past their peak. I believe north america passed it in the late 80s early 90s.”

I did not miss what you said – I ignored it the first time. Regardless, of being an oil driller, I believe that you are missing Oil Sands, Gas-to-Liquids, coal-to-liquids, and Shale oil. All are other non-traditional petroleum products available that were never profitable to extract or convert at less than $60/barrel. These are now possible alternatives.

Shale Oil
Take a look at the example of Shale Oil: “A 2005 estimate set the total world resources of oil shale at 411 gigatons — enough to yield 2.8 to 3.3 trillion barrels (520 km³) of shale oil. This exceeds the world’s proven conventional oil reserves, estimated at 1.317 trillion barrels (209.4×109 m3), as of 1 January 2007. The largest deposits in the world are found in the United States…”

Tar or Oil Sands
Also check out Oil Sands: “[T]he world’s largest deposits occur in two countries: Canada and Venezuela, both of which have tar sands reserves approximately equal to the world’s total reserves of conventional crude oil.” Ask Alberta about Oil Sands: “Second only to the Saudi Arabia reserves, Alberta’s oil sands deposits were described by Time Magazine as … ‘could satisfy the world’s demand for petroleum for the next century’.”

Coal to Liquids
The US has the world’s largest reserves of coal (pdf) which can be converted to gasoline.

Innovation
@Mirand:”Why aren’t we innovating?”
I believe that these technologies show that we are innovating. The market takes a while to respond and new technologies take some time. At $4 per gallon, innovation is coming, but maybe not in the radical form that you hope.

Peak Oil: Real but Half True
The typical person referring to peak oil is referring to conventional deposits like those in Saudi Arabia that are profitable at $4 per barrel. Most people mentioning peak oil do not realize that they are missing TONS of interchangeable resources such as those I mentioned above. Of course there is a peak, but it is not anywhere near if you include reasonably extractable alternatives.

We have lots of the stuff left, but it will never be as cheap or as easy to get as the product as we are burning now.

The problem isn’t finding more oil, but finding alternatives to oil consumption (whether it be riding a bike, public transportation, or alternative fuel sources). How about going after car companies to push them to mass produce fuel efficient or fuel alternative cars? They’re just as beholden to politics as the oil industry, so of course that’s not going to happen until gas reaches $10 a gallon and people start driving even less and buying fewer cars…

Oh, and to the people who say it’s cheaper to live in suburbia than in an urban location: consider how much your rent/mortgage would be different, and then calculate how much you pay in gas for commuting, longer trips to grocery store, activities, etc. Odds are, it’s not that much different.

Finally, and I apologize for not looking the specifics up for this, hasn’t anyone else heard about the oil (b?)millionaire in Texas who is actively putting his money towards researching and finding oil *alternatives*?? I think it says a lot when an “oil baron” is putting his money towards alternatives…

I also disagree that domestic drilling is the solution. It would take between 7 and 10 years to see any true results. What if — and I know this is crazy — we spent that billions of dollars and years of time actually improving current renewable technology so that in 7-10 years we had viable and cost-efficient alternatives that contribute toward ending our dependence on oil altogehter. The points above, that oil companies will continue to charge high prices, remain in force. Increased supply 7 to 10 years down the road isn’t going to change that.

Instead of looking to fossil fuels (the energy source of the last century) for solutions, we should be focusing our efforts and money on moving into the 21st century of energy production. We’re America, for heaven’s sake! Why aren’t we innovating?

DRILLING IS NOT THE ANSWER. As an oil driller (and having to repeat myself again!!) most of the oil producing countries are well past their peak. I believe north america passed it in the late 80s early 90s. That doesn’t mean you have no oil for domestic drilling but the oil you do have would be far to expensive to extract compared to buying from overseas. Therefore domestic drilling will not improve the situation. The only thing that will improve the situation is when america starts doing what everyone else is doing and develop more fuel efficient cars and start reducing emissions and looking for more fuel efficient alternatives. The rest of the world started this years ago yet when we invited the USA in on it your government gave us the middle finger!

The other thing is Iran and Russia are probably the two biggest remaining reserves yet you want to threaten Iran and Russia doesn’t like you much either…. i fore see some major issues there!